Predictor Models


  • To identify risk factors that impact persistence from first to second year for new high school students.
  • To focus recruitment effort on students most likely to enrol.
  • To generate a predictive score to identify incoming new high school students who are at risk of not persisting to second year.
  • To make recommendations which will enable departments to develop recruitment and retention strategies and initiatives that address the number of risk factors new high school students possess with a goal of minimizing those risk factors, and to provide needed resources to new high school students identified as being at risk.  All strategies developed will be within the guidelines of FOIP.

 Outcomes of Success:

  • Increased understanding of the various risk factors that impact new high school student persistence from first to second year.
  • Improved ability to target and provide effective recruitment and retention initiatives.
  • Increased satisfaction of new high school students on campus.
  • Increased retention and persistence-to-graduation rates of new high school students.
  • Increased sense of community for first year students.
  • IA will have an improved understanding of predictive models, allowing in-house development of further predictive models to inform our recruitment and retention strategies.

Team Leader:       Mandy Moser


  • Student retention model for 2011 approved in October 2011.
  • Fall 2011 data scored for student retention model January 2012.
  • Student retention model for 2012 approved in June 2012.
  • Fall 2012 data scored for student retention model October 2012.
  • Memorandum of agreement restructured to include student retention predictor model, applicant to enrolment model, and one site visit.
  • Retention strategy document finalized with subject matter team October 2012.
  • Applicant to enrolment model for 2012 approved in November 2012.
  • Fall 2013 applicants being scored weekly.
  • Meetings conducted with external firm for a complete overview with all stakeholders conducted February 14 and 15, 2013.
  • An article outlining the initiatives was published in the Legend in February, 2013.
  • Draft action plan completed March, 2013.
  • Action plan accepted and approved by Recruitment & Retention Project Team, Strategic Enrolment Management Committee, and Deans' Council.
  • The Action Plan is now operationalized under the auspices of Associate Vice President (Students) and Institutional Analysis (May, 2013).

Please Note: Monthly reports and other documents relevant to this project may be available to the University of Lethbridge community.  Please login by clicking the Log In Button below in order to view these documents.

You will be redirected to the secure University of Lethbridge login page