Even with proportional representation, some MPs just wouldn't fit in
In the broader scheme of things, PR would probably not lead to a Canada governed very differently from how it is governed today
globeandmail.com
Thu Mar 28 2013, 8:00am ET
Section: Other
Byline: John Ibbitson
Mark Warawa, Joyce Murray and Thomas Mulcair should sit down and have a drink - or whatever - some time. All three appear bent on destroying their political parties.
Mr. Warawa, a Conservative MP, is angry with Stephen Harper because the Prime Minister is stifling his attempts to provoke a parliamentary debate on abortion, going so far as to strike the Member for Langley's name from the list of people entitled to speak during members' statements.
Although the cracks were mostly papered over at caucus Wednesday, Mr. Warawa is the latest rebel within the Tory ranks to chafe at ironclad discipline that the Centre seeks to impose on the rank and file.
Ms. Murray is a Liberal MP and leadership candidate who wants to co-operate with the NDP to defeat the Conservatives in the next election. And Mr. Mulcair is, of course, the leader of the NDP, which has vowed to introduce a form of proportional representation for electing MPs if it forms a government, replacing the current first-past-the-post system.
If the Conservatives were to lose the election in 2015, and an NDP-dominated government changed the electoral method, what would happen?
"I expect we'd see some shuffling around of political parties, because Canadian political parties are all coalitions," said Harold Jansen, a political scientist at University of Lethbridge who studies political parties. In other words, the Conservative, New Democratic and Liberal parties would likely dissolve.
For example, the Conservative coalition consists of, among others, Christian conservatives, social moderates, libertarians, Red Tories, Western nationalists and people who just hate Liberals.
The imperative of co-operation brought them together to form the new Conservative Party in 2004. But in a system where every party was represented in the House based on its share of the national popular vote, there would be no need to hang together.
The same would happen to the NDP and Liberals. Social activists, trade protectionists, environmentalists, Quebec federalists, union supporters, Blue Liberals and others might all spin off in different directions.
Would the result be paralysis and discord? Probably not, Prof. Jansen believes.
For one thing, PR punishes regionally-based parties. The Bloc Québécois, because it was able to concentrate its vote, elected 49 MPs in the 2008 election, 16 per cent of the total, despite having earned only 10 per cent of the national vote. Even if the Bloc makes a comeback, it wouldn't be much of a comeback under PR.
Ideologically based parties do better, because their vote is often spread evenly across the country. The Greens would have had 12 seats in the current House, under proportional representation, rather than one.
But in the grand scheme, Prof Jansen believes, Canada would not be governed much differently than it is today.
"The research shows that you do end up with coalition governments and those coalition governments tend to govern very close to what we call the median voter," he observed.
Mr. Warawa might get elected to Parliament as a member of a Christian conservative party. But that party would be small, and it would be, at best, a minor player in a conservative coalition government.
Such a coalition would be dominated by a moderately conservative party, propped up either by smaller conservative parties or by a moderately progressive party.
That doesn't mean that PR is without flaws: It can be difficult for coalitions governments to act when tough and unpopular decisions need to be made, such as cutting spending to balance the books or imposing a carbon tax.
But in the broader scheme of things, PR would probably not lead to a Canada governed very differently from how it is governed today.
No matter what the system, Mark Warawa would not be happy in it.
© 2013 The Globe and Mail Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Length: 610 words
Idnumber: 201303280019
Tone: Negative [Negative]
© 2013 Infomart, a division of Postmedia Network Inc. All Rights Reserved. Copyright | Terms | Privacy
---
U of L Communications and Public Relations Contact:
Bob Cooney, Communications and PR Officer (403) 382-7173
In the broader scheme of things, PR would probably not lead to a Canada governed very differently from how it is governed today
globeandmail.com
Thu Mar 28 2013, 8:00am ET
Section: Other
Byline: John Ibbitson
Mark Warawa, Joyce Murray and Thomas Mulcair should sit down and have a drink - or whatever - some time. All three appear bent on destroying their political parties.
Mr. Warawa, a Conservative MP, is angry with Stephen Harper because the Prime Minister is stifling his attempts to provoke a parliamentary debate on abortion, going so far as to strike the Member for Langley's name from the list of people entitled to speak during members' statements.
Although the cracks were mostly papered over at caucus Wednesday, Mr. Warawa is the latest rebel within the Tory ranks to chafe at ironclad discipline that the Centre seeks to impose on the rank and file.
Ms. Murray is a Liberal MP and leadership candidate who wants to co-operate with the NDP to defeat the Conservatives in the next election. And Mr. Mulcair is, of course, the leader of the NDP, which has vowed to introduce a form of proportional representation for electing MPs if it forms a government, replacing the current first-past-the-post system.
If the Conservatives were to lose the election in 2015, and an NDP-dominated government changed the electoral method, what would happen?
"I expect we'd see some shuffling around of political parties, because Canadian political parties are all coalitions," said Harold Jansen, a political scientist at University of Lethbridge who studies political parties. In other words, the Conservative, New Democratic and Liberal parties would likely dissolve.
For example, the Conservative coalition consists of, among others, Christian conservatives, social moderates, libertarians, Red Tories, Western nationalists and people who just hate Liberals.
The imperative of co-operation brought them together to form the new Conservative Party in 2004. But in a system where every party was represented in the House based on its share of the national popular vote, there would be no need to hang together.
The same would happen to the NDP and Liberals. Social activists, trade protectionists, environmentalists, Quebec federalists, union supporters, Blue Liberals and others might all spin off in different directions.
Would the result be paralysis and discord? Probably not, Prof. Jansen believes.
For one thing, PR punishes regionally-based parties. The Bloc Québécois, because it was able to concentrate its vote, elected 49 MPs in the 2008 election, 16 per cent of the total, despite having earned only 10 per cent of the national vote. Even if the Bloc makes a comeback, it wouldn't be much of a comeback under PR.
Ideologically based parties do better, because their vote is often spread evenly across the country. The Greens would have had 12 seats in the current House, under proportional representation, rather than one.
But in the grand scheme, Prof Jansen believes, Canada would not be governed much differently than it is today.
"The research shows that you do end up with coalition governments and those coalition governments tend to govern very close to what we call the median voter," he observed.
Mr. Warawa might get elected to Parliament as a member of a Christian conservative party. But that party would be small, and it would be, at best, a minor player in a conservative coalition government.
Such a coalition would be dominated by a moderately conservative party, propped up either by smaller conservative parties or by a moderately progressive party.
That doesn't mean that PR is without flaws: It can be difficult for coalitions governments to act when tough and unpopular decisions need to be made, such as cutting spending to balance the books or imposing a carbon tax.
But in the broader scheme of things, PR would probably not lead to a Canada governed very differently from how it is governed today.
No matter what the system, Mark Warawa would not be happy in it.
© 2013 The Globe and Mail Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Length: 610 words
Idnumber: 201303280019
Tone: Negative [Negative]
© 2013 Infomart, a division of Postmedia Network Inc. All Rights Reserved. Copyright | Terms | Privacy
---
U of L Communications and Public Relations Contact:
Bob Cooney, Communications and PR Officer (403) 382-7173